The Housing Forecast Is Impossible to Know

For years, I have heard TV and radio announcers giving their 2 cents about the housing forecast for the rest of the year, or the year to come. People pay close attention to their thoughts, and we assume that it's accurate because, after all, it's on the news.

What I'd like to suggest are three reasons why housing forecasts are almost always inaccurate, and that it would be a better use of time and decision-making to focus on what really is and not what is going to happen.

First, have you ever noticed that housing prediction are usually as inaccurate as Sports Illustrated's picks at the beginning of each football season? Experts give their thoughts on television of what they think is going to happen.

But when things don't go the way they predicted, do you see them coming back on TV and admitting they were mistaken? It doesn't happen. The news stations are so busy finding guests and ongoing content for their listeners that they don't get around to checking up on claims, and most people forget where they heard it, anyway.

Second, there is no national real estate market. When prices are going up in one city, they may be stable or going down in another. Even when the market is hot or cold in the majority of major metropolitan areas does not mean that it will be the case where you invest. For this reason, many of the housing forecasts you hear on network TV are not applicable to your local area.

Third, it makes sense to invest in such a way that it doesn't matter if prices go up or down, but your profit is safe. By this, I mean buying property at a deep discount. Although more difficult than simply buying any house on the market for full market value, it will keep you safe in the event that values go down and you need to unload the house for less.

For these three reasons, I do not recommend paying attention to national housing forecasts that you hear on TV and the radio. Instead, focus on getting a great deal and you will have success wherever and whenever you invest.

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